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Oscars 2013: Will ‘Argo’ Really Win Best Picture?

5 years ago by Reg Seeton
Ben Affleck directs and stars in Argo about the Iran hostage crisis - Warner Bros.

Ben Affleck directs and stars in Argo about the Iran hostage crisis – Warner Bros.

Now that final Oscar voting is underway, can Ben Affleck’s Argo really win Best Picture at the Academy Awards after Affleck was snubbed as Best Director?

Although EW reveals that oddsmakers have Argo on top of the Oscar race for Best Picture, with 1-4 odds over Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, the fact that Ben Affleck didn’t get a nomination as Best Director makes predicting the outcome not only impossible but also highly illogical (to quote everyone’s favorite Vulcan).

That’s not to say that Argo and Ben Affleck aren’t deserving of Best Picture, especially since the political thriller swept the Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Screen Actors Guild Awards. But the Academy has set itself up to look ridiculously foolish should Argo win Best Picture after snubbing Affleck in the directing category.

How can you take the Oscars seriously if the Best Picture award goes to a film that was directed by someone the Academy didn’t even recognize as one of the year’s top directors?

Well, it’s a question I’m sure director Bruce Beresford asked in 1989 after being snubbed by the Academy as Best Director before Driving Miss Daisy went on to win Best Picture. In 1989, Driving Miss Daisy received nine Oscar nominations, won four golden statues, but Bruce Beresford was shut out of all honors as director. It makes about as much sense as snubbing Ben Affleck for Best Director and then handing Argo Best Picture.

Looking back now, the Academy’s 2009 decision to expand the Best Picture category to ten films only paved the way for Affleck’s snub. You’d logically think that ten films nominated for Best Picture would produce ten directors up for Best Director. To not expand the Best Director category makes about as much sense as Affleck being snubbed… ridiculous.

It’s true that Oscar voters could make a huge statement by voting for Argo despite the snub against Affleck. Will that really happen? It’s arguably the biggest question leading up to the February 24 ceremony.

What do you think? Will Argo really win Best Picture even though Ben Affleck wasn’t recognized? What would a move like that say about the Academy as a whole?

What do you think?

Reg Seeton

Reg Seeton created The Deadbolt in 2005 after working for the pioneering movie news website, Coming Attractions. Reg has over 15 years experience as a top online entertainment journalist and interviewer, has worked with several award winning actors, musicians and writers, and has managed entertainment networks in New York and Los Angeles. And he's done it all with one eye!