2008 Box Office: The Year of Paramount?
by Reg Seeton

As for the other big studios, Universal Pictures looks like it’ll be another serious contender in 2008 with the releases of The Incredible Hulk, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, and the remake of Death Race, but can they really compete with Indy, Iron Man, and the new Trek crew? Disney, on the other hand, is releasing The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian, which will undoubtedly make major financial noise at the box-office aside from the Disney/Pixar joint Wall-E and - although its not a film - the studio is almost-guaranteed a "tween" windfall from the upcoming Hanna Montana Concert Tour (see mention of Disney’s change in strategy above). Sony serves up the upcoming Seth Rogan/Judd Apatow project Pineapple Express and the sure-to-be-a-hit Bond 22 while New Line Cinema will be releasing Sex and the City, Semi-Pro, Inkheart, and Pride and Glory, with Fox releasing, Babylon A.D., X-Files 2, and The Day the Earth Stood Still.

After looking at the road ahead for 2008, it’s hard to argue that Paramount isn’t looking like the major winner of 2008 at this early stage of the game if it can stave off an impressive competitive push by Warner Bros. fuelled primarily by The Dark Knight and Harry Potter. It’s going to be an interesting race to the end of the box-office year to say the least.

Here’s a rundown of the four films in Paramount’s 2008 box-office slate that could make the studio the biggest earner for the year on both sides of the ocean:

Cloverfield - January 18 (1-18-08)
After the cult-success of the Asian monster hit The Host in 2007, Cloverfield has become the most talked about creature film of the latter part of 2007 and early 2008. With J.J. Abrams behind the scenes as producer and one of the most creative and mysteriously alluring marketing campaigns in years, is it any wonder all of the clues feel like an episode of Lost? With a budget reportedly in the range of an unbelievably low $30 million, Cloverfield should be one of the best marketing-ploy profit-turners since The Blair Witch. Don’t be surprised if Cloverfield cracks and surpasses the $60 to 70 million domestic mark on its opening weekend, which will lay waste to the similarly $30 million budgeted Snakes on a Plane hype machine of 2006. If we’re wrong, well, we’re wrong but the difference between Cloverfield and Snakes on a Plane is that we knew upfront what we were in for with the slithering Sam Jackson topliner - snakes on a plane - which was all the film had to offer. Will Cloverfield have enough marketing hype to hit the $200 million domestic mark? Just like the film, it all remains a mystery. The only meaningful competition for Cloverfield in January will be Rambo, which could also crack the $60 million mark on its opening weekend. Still, there’s no doubt Paramount has a big money-maker on its hands with a ton of sequel potential if it actually lives up to the hype.

Iron Man - May 2
With so many comic-to-film properties becoming major hits for studios, the Jon Favreau directed and Robert Downey toplined Iron Man will be the first significant comic book release of 2008 ahead of The Dark Knight and The Incredible Hulk. We can safely say that Iron Man won’t top the record breaking $148 million Spider-Man 3 hauled in its opening weekend, but it is possible that Iron Man could land somewhere near the $40 - $45 million mark after its opening weekend, ending up with an eventual domestic gross somewhere near $220 million, which, in today’s dollars, would put it in the vicinity of the 2005 comic-to-film hit Batman Begins. As far as comic book translations go, after you adjust for inflation, will The Dark Knight realistically top the previous release of Batman Begins to surpass Iron Man?

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - May 22
The fourth film in the Indiana Jones franchise is possibly the most interesting and hard-to-predict project that Paramount has in its roster for 2008. Sure, we know Indy 4 will be a gargantuan success, but just how much of a money-maker it will be remains a mystery. Will Indy 4 crack the $400 million mark in North America? Can George Lucas with the help of Steven Spielberg outdo himself and surpass the The Phantom Menace? Can the Indiana Jones franchise come out of retirement to topple the totals of one of today’s top box-office money-makers in Harry Potter? In 2007, Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix raked in nearly $300 million in domestic sales and a whopping $938 million combined total of domestic and International receipts. Even though some younger Harry Potter fans might not even know who Indiana Jones is (or care for that matter), there’s little doubt the Indy franchise still has enough gas in its tank to equal that amount at the very least. Don’t be surprised if Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull tops well over the $1 billion mark after domestic and worldwide totals are tallied, with a majority of the loot coming from overseas box-office receipts.

Star Trek (XI) - December 25
Taking a page from the reinvention of the Bond franchise and the early beginnings revealed in Batman Begins, the new Star Trek will take fans into prequel territory as the formula for financial success. Although the future of Star Trek on the big-screen was in serious doubt in 2002 after Star Trek: Nemesis hauled in a lackluster domestic $43 million to its $60 million budget, things appear to be on the right track in the hands of J.J. Abrams (at least from a "reigniting the fanbase" perspective). After the success of Transformers, can Paramount strike gold with another seemingly defunct but popular franchise? Although Box Office Mojo lists the average domestic gross for a Star Trek movie at approximately $75 million, the demand for the new Trek film is steadily on the rise and growing by the week. Fans still have to wait almost an entire year before they lay eyes on the film, but we all know the legions of Star Trek fans will be out in droves come Christmas 2008. In 1986, The Voyage Home took in $109,713,132 domestically, so it’s looking good that the new film could make $150 million at least. Adjusted for inflation, and if it gets good word of mouth and reviews, the new Star Trek might turn out to be the highest grossing Star Trek film ever, eventually cracking the $200 million domestic mark. Keep in mind that Star Trek is a worldwide phenomenon and Trekkies have been starving five long years for another voyage into the Star Trek universe after Nemesis almost sank their ship. If the domestic take cracks $200 million, it should be an even better box-office haul overseas. There’s no doubt Star Trek should help to give all of Paramount’s employees a big Christmas bonus in 2008.

When it's all said and done, and we're being generous here given the competition and rosters of all studios, it's still fun to speculate on the road ahead. No matter how you look at it, Paramount will undoubtedly have a good year in 2008.