6 Factors That Shed Light on Watchmen's Box Office Potential
by Larson Hill

After so many fanboy friendly movies have been hailed as nearly guaranteed box-office windfalls only to either flop, break even, or become moderate successes, it's perfectly legit to explore the box office potential of Watchmen. Will fans set the bar so high that Watchmen can't possibly be as big or as successful as its fan base wants it be? I don't mean whether Watchmen will be a good film. For now I'll take Kevin Smith at his positive word since he' already checked it out and the trailer does look absolutely amazing. Instead I'm referring to the unpredictable gray area that exists between excitement from a fan base, the limitations of the film, and grounded reality that often makes it hard to gauge true box office potential. Watchmen is going to be a dark movie (it has to be), which could also going to limit its box office potential and marketability to a wider audience. Since it's the holy grail of graphic novels, and we've been waiting a long, long time for this one, I'd like to see it crush The Dark Knight at the box office. Even though the graphic novel identity is drastically different than Batman’s super hero roots, is it a real possibility or just wishful thinking?

Since comic book/graphic novel geeks are finally seeing their favorite properties make it to the big screen like never before, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that there's not a lot of room at the very top of the big screen page-to-panel universe. Sure more movies are cracking the $100 million to $200 million range, but domestic successes on the scale of The Dark Knight are rare... like only two movies in history to top the $500 million domestic mark rare. A few months ago, most thought the fourth installment in the Indiana Jones franchise was a lock to get The Dark Knight numbers at the box office.

Stepping Away from the Hype:

In the past few months since Watchmen wrapped in Vancouver and the first trailer was released, I've reeled in my excitement and taken a step back from the hype for a different perspective. Although geeks have been dying to see a big screen adaptation of the masterpiece created by Alan Moore and Dave Gibbons, we all know there's a big difference between excitement and overconfidence. Having traversed the web for various Watchmen updates since it went into production, I've recognized that there's still a lot of people beyond the comic/graphic novel world that don't have a clue about the property, its characters, and its legacy. Having put my own love for the Watchmen series aside, I've started to take a closer look at the film's box-office potential beyond the fan community.

There's little doubt that fans from all corners of the comic book/graphic novel universe will come out in droves to see Watchmen, at least the ones who will be old enough to see it. But laying down money on whether the movie will appeal to mainstream audiences isn't a sure bet at all. If the last few years at the box office have taught us anything, moviegoers like things simple and Watchmen is anything but, which is one of the reasons why we love it. It's extremely challenging material. Since we'll be venturing into the dark alternate political reality of the '80s where Richard Nixon still presides over the country, the U.S. is still embroiled in a tug-of-war arms race with the Soviet Union, and a group of heroes have changed the course of history, Watchmen isn't your typical comic-to-film translation.

Not only is Watchmen layered with shades of Egyptian and Greek mythology, with roots in sci-fi and fantasy, it's also a political thriller, a protest story, a mystery, a story of heroes, and a post-apocalyptic drama all at the same time. In fact, there are so many deeply complex themes in the original Watchmen series that it's hard to believe a movie could be any less than four hours long. The complexities of Watchmen (including various forms of eye–popping brutality) is a lot for average moviegoers to invest in, especially the girlfriends and mothers out there who really want to see What Happens in Vegas II.

In the end, what does the box office potential look like for Watchmen? Let's take a look...

The "R" Factor:

Let's get this one out of the way first. Can you really picture Watchmen as a PG-13 movie? I can't. But The Dark Knight, Iron Man, and the lucrative movies in Watchmen's marketability wheelhouse have been PG-13. And to think Watchmen, if tagged with an "R", could pull in huge gargantuan box office numbers like The Dark Knight or even Iron Man is a huge stretch. As most would agree, on the dark, disturbing violent scale, Watchmen makes The Dark Knight look like Wall-E. If some elements within the series are translated literally to the screen, some people wouldn’t know what to do. And to not put certain scenes in the film makes the case that you have to take away from the graphic novel series to make the movie, which, to most fans, is a crime.

But an "R" rated Watchmen, which is what it really should be, will be limited in profit potential unless it gets a PG-13. No matter how much hype it gets, the "R" will come with a box office cap. As an example of how dark Watchmen will be, RopesofSilicon featured quotes from star Jeffery Dean Morgan, who recently revealed how challenging the material was for him, "This is stuff that's a little different than anything I have ever done, and it was stuff that I had a hard time with. There are a couple of things The Comedian does, and I never ever in a million years thought there was something I would have to think twice about, as an actor, but I could make no excuses for it. There were a couple of rough days of filming where I was just like, 'This is tough.'"

The 300 Factor

An "R" rating aside, one of the major factors in favor of Watchmen's box-office potential is the fact that not a lot mainstream moviegoers knew of Frank Miller's 300 prior to its release. 300 had a huge niche fan base in the graphic novel world, which kick-started good word-of-mouth about the amazing visuals and layers of its story. At the same time, Hollywood and mainstream movie fans finally began to appreciate the genius of Frank Miller, which opened the door to a new, non-conventional graphic novel to film adaptation. The fact that Watchmen director Zack Snyder turned 300 into a $200 million box-office hit only enhances Watchmen's chances to live up to the hype. Perhaps the single biggest factor with regard to 300 is the fact that Watchmen has an even bigger fan base. You know a graphic novel to film movie has legs when your girlfriend comes over and asks you, "What's that movie 300 about? Everyone at work is talking about it." The fact that Snyder handled 300 so well and was able to attract more fans beyond the graphic novel world bodes well for Watchmen's box-office potential.

The Dark Knight Factor

As much as some of us would like to see Watchmen reach the record setting box-office heights of The Dark Knight, it's not going to happen. While it's not impossible, neither is you or I ever dating Angelina Jolie. But the one thing that The Dark Knight did at the box-office to help Watchmen was that it ushered in a new era of comic-to-film movies filled with "dark" human layers that audiences weren't afraid to embrace. But in the end, The Dark Knight was more of a family film that fathers and sons could see together than anyone could have imagined. However, Watchmen is a completely different beast. The success of The Dark Knight proves that audiences are ready to explore the darker corners of the comic book universe in the way they were originally written, but it's likely Watchmen will prove that those same mainstream moviegoers (who thought they were ready) aren't truly ready to go to certain dark and violent places at the theater. Still, despite how the success of The Dark Knight could help Watchmen, more people know who Batman is than the characters in Watchmen. Can mainstream moviegoers unfamiliar with Watchmen pick The Comedian out a super hero line up? Will they even be able to pronounce "Rorschach"? That's the big gap between The Dark Knight and Watchmen.

The Iron Man Factor:

After seeing the evolution of Iron Man from announcement to final on-screen product, a best case scenario for Watchmen, if it could somehow eek out a PG-13, is that it would land somewhere in this box-office ball park. Iron Man has already topped the $300 million domestic mark, but that's with a PG-13 rating. If Watchmen could somehow get a push similar to what took 300 to box-office glory, there's a long shot chance this is the very maximum potential the film has on a domestic level. And that's pushing it. Once again though, like The Dark Knight, Iron Man is a well-known character to mainstream moviegoers, even at the fringes of the comic-to-film universe. Even with the same level of hype that made Tony Stark a success, does Watchmen have a legit shot at touching Iron Man at the box-office? Think about it this way... A lot of kids went to see Iron Man, the same ones who will be dressing up at Halloween as Iron Man, who will be completely shut out of Watchmen... and largely for good reason.

The Sin City Factor:

The fact that the "R" rated Sin City, with its dark and disturbing layers, nearly doubled its money at the domestic box-office can be looked at as a good sign for Watchmen and an indicator of where it might land in terms of numbers (at least as a starting point of a range). Given its structure and unique visual identity, Sin City wasn't the most easily digestible movies a moviegoer could see. But a lot of non-graphic novel fans went to see it. The biggest drawback of the Sin City factor is that it capped out at just over $70 million domestically. So, for a graphic novel adaptation that's deeply complex, brutal and violent, with a completely unique but bleak visual identity, a lot of people beyond the comic world bought into it. Still, it didn't crack the $100 million mark. Sin City isn't nearly as popular with fans as Watchmen but the final numbers as a graphic novel adaptation with an "R" are something to look at.

The Legal Factor:

Given how the legal battle between Warner Bros. and 20th Century Fox over the rights to Watchmen is now kicking into high gear, it's looking more likely that Watchmen will be delayed and pushed back from its scheduled March 2009 release date. To a large degree, there are few things that could happen that might have a significant impact on the film's box-office potential. If Watchmen is pushed back due to the Warner Bros. and Fox heading to court, one line of thought is that it's only going to make fans all the more hungrier to see the film. If we're talking a delay of a few months to the end of 2009, that's more than enough time to keep the hype train going while more mainstream moviegoers become familiar with it.

But given the fact that there are a few studios on the peripheral of the legal battle that could get dragged in - Paramount, Legendary Pictures, and possibly Universal - a long delay could take a lot of steam out of the hype and momentum. A long delay could also mean overhype exhaustion, too, especially since timing is everything. There's no doubt that its fan base will turn out no matter when it hits theaters, but a lot of those same fans will be in a different place if we don't see Watchmen until 2010 or beyond. In the end, that wouldn't be good for any studio as far as box-office potential is concerned. At the same time, though, the longer the legal battle wages, the more Watchmen will still be in the public eye. It's a tough call on how it will impact Watchmen's box-office receipts if it drags on.