The Deadbolt Feature - How Will New Moon Fair at the Twilight Box-Office?

How Will New Moon Fair at the Twilight Box-Office?
by Larson Hill

Twilght New Moon There should be little doubt left in anyone’s mind that The Twilight Saga, both the novels and the expanding film franchise, is anything short of a cultural phenomenon. Aside from the tidal waves of weekly stories devoted to the Twilight novels and the upcoming Twilight sequel New Moon, there has already been a phenomenal amount of press coverage given to Twilight Saga stars Robert Pattinson, Kristin Stewart and Taylor Lautner. Although there is still half a year until the November 20 release of the second Twilight installment, New Moon, there’s no slowing down the sales of Twilight related merchandise and even more Twilight Saga novels, as eager fans pounce on any juicy tidbit that comes down the Twilight pike, either cinematic or literary.

Last year, prior to the release of Twilight, Hot Topic, the hipster chain that sells film and television themed clothing and toys with a darker edge, announced that Twilight star Robert Pattinson would make an exclusive appearance at their San Francisco outlet. As rabid Twilighters scrambled to get a glimpse of the live-action version of Twilight vampire Edward Cullen, more than 5,000 eager fans descended upon Hot Topic, which quickly escalated into a near Twilight riot as the swelling fans overwhelmed an obviously-not-prepared security staff at the store who underestimated the popularity of the Stephenie Meyer based franchise. After the financial success of Twilight and double the popularity after the first film adaptation, will the sequel New Moon double up at the box-office? Will the New Moon novel translate as well financially to the big screen as Twilight?

Twilght New Moon Although nothing is ever a guarantee when it comes to the movie industry, and the financial success of most movies comes down to timing and a variety of other factors, at this point most fans and observers may be inclined to lay down a blind bet on the prediction that New Moon will better its Twilight predecessor at the box-office. Judging by the waves of online discussions and coverage surrounding The Twilight Saga and New Moon, who wouldn’t go for broke with a bet that New Moon will do better than Twilight? But one thing the online world has proven to be when predicting the box-office success of movies is inconsistent and not quite the reliable barometer the Internet often appears to be. Sometimes it pays off and other times it doesn’t. Although New Moon is no Snakes on a Plane, there are some interesting stats over at BoxOfficeMojo in terms of other hugely popular franchises that reveal the box-office history of the first two Harry Potter movies and a few surprising numbers of other films in the comic and fantasy worlds.

Interestingly, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone clocked in with a final domestic box-office take of $317,575,550 from a total of 3,672 theaters while the second film in the J.K. Rowling franchise, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, ran in 613 more theaters but fell short of the first film with a total domestic haul of $261,988,482. What does that really say for the Twilight sequel new Moon? Certainly nothing specific or definite, but the numbers between the first two movies are a bit surprising given the frenzied anticipation leading up to the first Harry Potter film and the expanding popularity of the franchise. Although the numbers show a decrease in box-office receipts, The Twilight Saga is a slightly different beast in that the second Harry Potter movie didn't get nearly the amount of online press coverage that New Moon is receiving. Still, when you look at the box-office numbers for such hugely popular, even bigger fan friendly franchises as Spider-Man and Lord of the Rings, box-office predictions get even trickier. As listed on BoxOfficeMojo, there was a decrease from first Spider-Man movie at $403,706,375 to Spider-Man 2 with $373,585,825 while Lord of The Rings: The Two Towers saw a slight improvement with $339,789,881 in domestic receipts to the $314,776,170 U.S. take from The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring. So when it comes to first and second movies with huge fan bases, you never know. Like I said, nothing is ever a guarantee in the movie industry.

Twilght New Moon Is New Moon as much a double-up box-office lock as it appears to be? Possibly. The fact is that New moon will either establish a near cap on a Twilight box-office take or a new ceiling. By near cap I mean something similar to what we saw with the two Hulk movies, with the 2003 Ang Lee directed Hulk earning $132,177,234 to the nearly identical domestic box-office numbers of the 2008 The Incredible Hulk, which hauled in $134,806,913. The numbers of the Hulk are somewhat surprising given the apparent online disdain for the first Hulk while the welcomed second chance Incredible Hulk didn’t double-up even though there was positive online anticipation.

In terms of a new ceiling, we don’t know how much more room there is for The Twilight Saga to grow at the box-office since Twilight took in $191,465,414 domestic. If the online popularity proves to bear out in the numbers, you’d expect New Moon to shoot over $200 million and upward to $225 million and possibly $250million and beyond. Will New Moon reach $300 million? After The Dark Knight, the follow up to Batman Begins, nothing is impossible at the box-office. The highly anticipated Batman Begins made $205,343,774 to the domestic Fort Knox of The Dark Knight at $533,345,358. Will New Moon do TDK numbers? It’s highly doubtful since to double its money New Moon will need to bring in $382,930,828 at the domestic box-office, which still wouldn’t even be close to The Dark Knight.

Judging by the online popularity of The Twilight Saga and its stars Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, and Taylor Lautner, there's no doubt that New Moon will do well. How well remains to be seen. One thing we know for sure, New Moon will certainly put the popularity of the franchise to the box-office test.

Six months out from release, it’s fun to crunch Twilight numbers.

-- Larson Hill